Operator Analysis Point Of View : TM 4863, Is It Bottom Yet?

TM 4863, many investors are eyeing at this company right now for the right price and right time for entry.


We received many inquiry and the reason for the investors to look into this stock is because of the price is very low now, so is a good time to look at it.


First of all, we don’t agree with price is too low and it could not go any lower as a reason to move into a stock. Investors or traders who based on this reason to buy stocks is clearly don’t understand about the stock market.


This is exactly like the situation of flipping a coin 10 times and the first 5 times the result is head, so people will think the 6th time when it flip the coin it will be tail. Because many will think the chances of head or tail is 50 : 50. In fact you are not wrong if you put this ratio in EACH time when you flip a coin the chances of head or tail is 50 : 50. But when you flip it 10 times in different set will be a different ratio and the outcome will be different, it will no longer 50 : 50 out of 10 times, it could be 90:10 or 70:30.


Instead of saying “is at a low price right now, it will not go lower”, put it as “When is the right time to move in?”. With the right question ask, you will start to find trace for the answer, “How do we know the price is at the bottom?” -> “How to see the price is bottom?” -> “In what kind of situation that the price will rebound?” -> the answer is, when buyers are coming in, but who is the buyer? -> the big boys.


Here is your answer to know when is the time to move into TM 4863, watch the big boys movement.

4863.MY TM 1172018

Most of the traders or technical analyst would say is an entry yesterday because the price pattern showed a flag breakout. Many traders would have jump in mid of the day and got stuck halfway at a loss because the price retrace. Often traders or investors jump into a stock too early and refuse to cut loss when they notice is a wrong trade because they have high expectation when they see a “technical buy”.


Here’s a few questions to many traders out there, do you know what is the meaning behind the flag breakout?


Sometimes flag breakout failed, why?


If you can answer the above with facts, you don’t understand the market. We did not call for entry in TM is due to the price and volume movement through the price up and yesterday price up is merely a some big boys are supporting the index, when I say supporting doesn’t mean that they are coming back in and push the price up higher.


They can support the index by supporting the price at a point and liquidate their position end of the day, for the purpose of having enough funds to support the index tomorrow.


Here’s how we know about this, if we really need understand the big boys, we need to look into details, not just the daily chart. Daily chart just give us surface understanding of the stock movement, it doesn’t really tell us whether it will failed or really have the intention to push the price up.


If you look at the highlighted area of TM in its 5 mins chart for the past 2 days. You will notice there are many high volume in but the price don’t stay at the high side, these are mainly because of the big boys are pushing the price up to support it at higher level then they throw down the price to liquidate some of their holdings for maintaining the price.

4863.MYmin TM 1172018

At this point their intention is just to support the price, but not staying there to push the price up. Where they can make short term profit at the same time, support the price at the time being.


From here we can see those big boys who want to come in that will push the price up higher is not in yet.


As a small retail investors and traders, the above big boys are te one that we need to follow.


Personally we believe in big boys affect the price direction, not the fundamental of it.


The reason is because :

  1. the price of the company doesn’t really correlate to the financial of the company.
    Price of the company move depends on demand and supply. If that company have good financial result and good fundamental if the owner of the company not interested to let the price fluctuate a lot or have no intention to push the price up. The price will stay stagnate.

    2. In the stock market price always move first before news or financial result. But many investors in the market can only look at previous quarter company financial result to justify future price movement. Which is like gambling in casino looking at the graph of big small history and bet on the next result.

    3. Everyone wants to invest like Warren Buffet, which Warren Buffett believes is true. But cannot apply into us. Which Warren Buffett has mentioned before “buy business, not the share”.
    Many investors in the stock market misunderstand what he said and look into financial result of a company and see that this company business is good and start to buy some shares into the company which they thought they are buying in based on Warren Buffett way.
    Which in fact they are not. The difference are, when Warren Buffett say buying business, he is really buying the business with majority of the shares purchase, so he has the right in that company, he can declare dividends and change the company direction. Which for many investors out there they are just buying a very small percentage of shares, like 1000 lot? 100 lot? Which is still buying the company shares, not investing into a good company!

    That’s why many small investors in the market are not making much profit over the long time but big investors are making profit, because the have the control in that company.

The above is based on our point of view and belief, you might have your own beliefs which we totally respect you as long as we can make profit together from the stock market. Cheers!

For the time being, from our point of view we see that the big boys are not back into the market yet that will affect the price higher. Overall market, we see more pump & dump situation, which means the market will still be bad, until we see big boys coming back into the market to star their accumulation only we change our view in the market.

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DISCLAIMER : All stocks share here are based on the speaker’s point of view. It does not constitute an offer to buy or sell stocks.Viewers are responsible on their own trading decisions. All stocks share here are based on short term outlook of the stocks, it is not suitable to based on above stocks list for long term reference.


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